Within or between jobs? Determinants of membership volatility in the European Parliament, 1979–2014

This paper uses duration analysis to model determinants of early exit for all members of the European Parliament (MEPs), 1979–2014, and compares this with existing accounts of between-session turnover in the EP. The notable diversity present in the national political and electoral institutions of the 28 member states electing MEPs allows us to maximize purchase over both cross-national and temporal sources of variation found in the EP. Our findings indicate that variation present in the national institutions of EU countries has strong bearing on the extent to which within-term volatility exists in the EP, contributing both to understanding of volatility in this important legislative body, specifically, as well as appreciation for the connection between national and European political systems more generally.