Unsupervised Domain Adaptation for Binary Classification with an Unobservable Source Subpopulation

We study an unsupervised domain adaptation problem where the source domain consists of subpopulations defined by the binary label Y and a binary background (or environment) A. We focus on a challenging setting in which one such subpopulation in the source domain is unobservable. Naively ignoring this unobserved group can result in biased estimates and degraded predictive performance. Despite this structured missingness, we show that the prediction in the target domain can still be recovered. Specifically, we rigorously derive both background-specific and overall predictive probabilities for the target domain. For practical implementation, we propose the distribution matching method to estimate the subpopulation proportions. We provide theoretical guarantees for the asymptotic behavior of our estimator, and establish an upper bound on the prediction error. Experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets show that our method outperforms the naive benchmarks that do not account for this unobservable source subpopulation properly.