TY - CHAP
T1 - Transmission Dynamics and Quarantine Control of COVID-19 in Cluster Community
AU - Gao, Qingwu
AU - Zhuang, Jun
AU - Wu, Ting
AU - Shen, Houcai
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.
PY - 2022
Y1 - 2022
N2 - Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a zoonotic illness which has spread rapidly and widely in past two years and was identified as a global pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO). The pandemic to date has been characterized by ongoing cluster community transmission. Quarantine intervention to prevent and control the transmission is expected to have a substantial impact on delaying the growth and mitigating the size of the epidemic. To our best knowledge, this study is among the initial efforts to analyze the interplay between transmission dynamics and quarantine intervention of the COVID-19 outbreak in a cluster community. In the chapter, we propose a novel Transmission-Quarantine epidemiological model by non-linear ordinary differential equations system. With the use of detailed epidemiologic data from the Cruise ship “Diamond Princess,” we design a Transmission-Quarantine work-flow to determine the optimal case-specific parameters and validate the proposed model by comparing the simulated curve with the real data. Firstly, we apply a general SEIR-type epidemic model to study the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 without quarantine intervention and present the analytic and simulation results for the epidemiological parameters such as the basic reproduction number, the maximal scale of infectious cases, the instant number of recovered cases, the popularity level, and the final scope of the epidemic of COVID-19. Secondly, we adopt the proposed Transmission-Quarantine interplay model to predict the varying trend of COVID-19 with quarantine intervention and compare the transmission dynamics with and without quarantine to illustrate the effectiveness of the quarantine measure, which indicates that with quarantine intervention, the number of infectious cases in 7 days decreases by about 60%, compared with the scenario of no intervention. Finally, we conduct sensitivity analysis to simulate the impacts of different parameters and different quarantine measures and identify the optimal quarantine strategy that can be used by the decision makers to achieve the maximal protection of population with the minimal interruption of economic and social development.
AB - Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a zoonotic illness which has spread rapidly and widely in past two years and was identified as a global pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO). The pandemic to date has been characterized by ongoing cluster community transmission. Quarantine intervention to prevent and control the transmission is expected to have a substantial impact on delaying the growth and mitigating the size of the epidemic. To our best knowledge, this study is among the initial efforts to analyze the interplay between transmission dynamics and quarantine intervention of the COVID-19 outbreak in a cluster community. In the chapter, we propose a novel Transmission-Quarantine epidemiological model by non-linear ordinary differential equations system. With the use of detailed epidemiologic data from the Cruise ship “Diamond Princess,” we design a Transmission-Quarantine work-flow to determine the optimal case-specific parameters and validate the proposed model by comparing the simulated curve with the real data. Firstly, we apply a general SEIR-type epidemic model to study the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 without quarantine intervention and present the analytic and simulation results for the epidemiological parameters such as the basic reproduction number, the maximal scale of infectious cases, the instant number of recovered cases, the popularity level, and the final scope of the epidemic of COVID-19. Secondly, we adopt the proposed Transmission-Quarantine interplay model to predict the varying trend of COVID-19 with quarantine intervention and compare the transmission dynamics with and without quarantine to illustrate the effectiveness of the quarantine measure, which indicates that with quarantine intervention, the number of infectious cases in 7 days decreases by about 60%, compared with the scenario of no intervention. Finally, we conduct sensitivity analysis to simulate the impacts of different parameters and different quarantine measures and identify the optimal quarantine strategy that can be used by the decision makers to achieve the maximal protection of population with the minimal interruption of economic and social development.
UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85139482397
U2 - 10.1007/978-3-030-96562-4_8
DO - 10.1007/978-3-030-96562-4_8
M3 - Chapter
AN - SCOPUS:85139482397
T3 - Modeling and Simulation in Science, Engineering and Technology
SP - 233
EP - 264
BT - Modeling and Simulation in Science, Engineering and Technology
PB - Birkhauser
ER -