Towards a model for long-term education policy

This paper describes the long-term economic and demographic forecast from recent long-term computer global models and discusses their possible relevance to education policy. Overall, regional, sectoral and international economic results are described as well as age and skill specific demographic results. It is argued that the models may be of some value in their current form but that a more comprehensive and value based analysis is in order. Different Utopian models of education, traditional, diverse and planned, and their dysutopian counterparts are sketched. After taking one of the current models as an illustration, a computable quantitative framework, designed to overcome several of the criticisms of current models made in the paper, is suggested.