The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets under 1.5 °C global warming

Frank Pattyn; Catherine Ritz; Edward Hanna; Xylar Asay-Davis; Rob DeConto; Gaël Durand; Lionel Favier; Xavier Fettweis; Heiko Goelzer; Nicholas R. Golledge; Peter Kuipers Munneke; Jan T.M. Lenaerts; Sophie Nowicki; Antony J. Payne; Alexander Robinson; Hélène Seroussi; Luke D. Trusel; Michiel van den Broeke

doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0305-8

The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets under 1.5 °C global warming

Frank Pattyn
, Catherine Ritz
, Edward Hanna
, Xylar Asay-Davis
, Rob DeConto
, Gaël Durand
, Lionel Favier
, Xavier Fettweis
, Heiko Goelzer
, Nicholas R. Golledge
, Peter Kuipers Munneke
, Jan T.M. Lenaerts
, Sophie Nowicki
, Antony J. Payne
, Alexander Robinson
, Hélène Seroussi
, Luke D. Trusel
, Michiel van den Broeke

Earth Sciences

Université libre de Bruxelles
Université Grenoble Alpes
University of Lincoln
Los Alamos National Laboratory
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
University of Massachusetts
University of Liege
Utrecht University
Victoria University of Wellington
GNS Science
University of Colorado Boulder
University of Bristol
Complutense University
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology
Rowan University

Research output: Contribution to journal › Review article › peer-review

185 Scopus citations

Abstract

Even if anthropogenic warming were constrained to less than 2 °C above pre-industrial, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets will continue to lose mass this century, with rates similar to those observed over the past decade. However, nonlinear responses cannot be excluded, which may lead to larger rates of mass loss. Furthermore, large uncertainties in future projections still remain, pertaining to knowledge gaps in atmospheric (Greenland) and oceanic (Antarctica) forcing. On millennial timescales, both ice sheets have tipping points at or slightly above the 1.5–2.0 °C threshold; for Greenland, this may lead to irreversible mass loss due to the surface mass balance–elevation feedback, whereas for Antarctica, this could result in a collapse of major drainage basins due to ice-shelf weakening.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	1053-1061
Number of pages	9
Journal	Nature Climate Change
Volume	8
Issue number	12
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0305-8
State	Published - Dec 1 2018

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Pattyn, F., Ritz, C., Hanna, E., Asay-Davis, X., DeConto, R., Durand, G., Favier, L., Fettweis, X., Goelzer, H., Golledge, N. R., Kuipers Munneke, P., Lenaerts, J. T. M., Nowicki, S., Payne, A. J., Robinson, A., Seroussi, H., Trusel, L. D., & van den Broeke, M. (2018). The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets under 1.5 °C global warming. Nature Climate Change, 8(12), 1053-1061. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0305-8

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title = "The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets under 1.5 °C global warming",

abstract = "Even if anthropogenic warming were constrained to less than 2 °C above pre-industrial, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets will continue to lose mass this century, with rates similar to those observed over the past decade. However, nonlinear responses cannot be excluded, which may lead to larger rates of mass loss. Furthermore, large uncertainties in future projections still remain, pertaining to knowledge gaps in atmospheric (Greenland) and oceanic (Antarctica) forcing. On millennial timescales, both ice sheets have tipping points at or slightly above the 1.5–2.0 °C threshold; for Greenland, this may lead to irreversible mass loss due to the surface mass balance–elevation feedback, whereas for Antarctica, this could result in a collapse of major drainage basins due to ice-shelf weakening.",

author = "Frank Pattyn and Catherine Ritz and Edward Hanna and Xylar Asay-Davis and Rob DeConto and Ga{\"e}l Durand and Lionel Favier and Xavier Fettweis and Heiko Goelzer and Golledge, \{Nicholas R.\} and \{Kuipers Munneke\}, Peter and Lenaerts, \{Jan T.M.\} and Sophie Nowicki and Payne, \{Antony J.\} and Alexander Robinson and H{\'e}l{\`e}ne Seroussi and Trusel, \{Luke D.\} and \{van den Broeke\}, Michiel",

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Pattyn, F, Ritz, C, Hanna, E, Asay-Davis, X, DeConto, R, Durand, G, Favier, L, Fettweis, X, Goelzer, H, Golledge, NR, Kuipers Munneke, P, Lenaerts, JTM, Nowicki, S, Payne, AJ, Robinson, A, Seroussi, H, Trusel, LD & van den Broeke, M 2018, 'The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets under 1.5 °C global warming', Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, no. 12, pp. 1053-1061. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0305-8

TY - JOUR

T1 - The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets under 1.5 °C global warming

AU - Pattyn, Frank

AU - Ritz, Catherine

AU - Hanna, Edward

AU - Asay-Davis, Xylar

AU - DeConto, Rob

AU - Durand, Gaël

AU - Favier, Lionel

AU - Fettweis, Xavier

AU - Goelzer, Heiko

AU - Golledge, Nicholas R.

AU - Kuipers Munneke, Peter

AU - Lenaerts, Jan T.M.

AU - Nowicki, Sophie

AU - Payne, Antony J.

AU - Robinson, Alexander

AU - Seroussi, Hélène

AU - Trusel, Luke D.

AU - van den Broeke, Michiel

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N2 - Even if anthropogenic warming were constrained to less than 2 °C above pre-industrial, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets will continue to lose mass this century, with rates similar to those observed over the past decade. However, nonlinear responses cannot be excluded, which may lead to larger rates of mass loss. Furthermore, large uncertainties in future projections still remain, pertaining to knowledge gaps in atmospheric (Greenland) and oceanic (Antarctica) forcing. On millennial timescales, both ice sheets have tipping points at or slightly above the 1.5–2.0 °C threshold; for Greenland, this may lead to irreversible mass loss due to the surface mass balance–elevation feedback, whereas for Antarctica, this could result in a collapse of major drainage basins due to ice-shelf weakening.

AB - Even if anthropogenic warming were constrained to less than 2 °C above pre-industrial, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets will continue to lose mass this century, with rates similar to those observed over the past decade. However, nonlinear responses cannot be excluded, which may lead to larger rates of mass loss. Furthermore, large uncertainties in future projections still remain, pertaining to knowledge gaps in atmospheric (Greenland) and oceanic (Antarctica) forcing. On millennial timescales, both ice sheets have tipping points at or slightly above the 1.5–2.0 °C threshold; for Greenland, this may lead to irreversible mass loss due to the surface mass balance–elevation feedback, whereas for Antarctica, this could result in a collapse of major drainage basins due to ice-shelf weakening.

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85056662573

U2 - 10.1038/s41558-018-0305-8

DO - 10.1038/s41558-018-0305-8

M3 - Review article

AN - SCOPUS:85056662573

SN - 1758-678X

VL - 8

SP - 1053

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JO - Nature Climate Change

JF - Nature Climate Change

IS - 12

ER -

The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets under 1.5 °C global warming

Abstract

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