The Equity Implications of School Principal Evaluation for Student Achievement: A Critical Quantitative Policy Analysis

This study investigated causal links between states’ principal evaluation policies and academic achievement among Black and Hispanic students, focusing on two policy levers: (a) required inclusion of student growth data (output-based) and (b) mandated observations or site visits (input-based). We used repeated cross-sectional data on policy levers collected at eight time points during 2005 to 2019 and a counterfactual estimation framework for causal inferences. States enacting the output-based policy lever did not typically have higher reading or math achievement scores on the National Assessment of Educational Progress among Black and Hispanic eighth-grade students than states without these policies. In contrast, the input-based policy lever had a significant positive effect on eighth-grade reading achievement scores, particularly among Black students. The importance of focusing on principal behaviors rather than student achievement is discussed for enhancing school accountability with racial equity.