The conditional effect of local party organization activity on federal election outcomes

Is increased activity by local party organizations associated with improved party performance in up-ballot elections in the contemporary United States? We leverage data from an original survey of county party chairs to assess the relationship between local party effort and county-level outcomes in federal races. After accounting for county-level ideology, we find that greater local party activity is associated with better electoral performance, but only in counties where the party’s presidential candidate fell well short of winning the popular vote in the previous election. This relationship is nullified in electorally competitive counties and appears to reverse in counties where the chair’s party is electorally dominant. These findings are robust to an array of model specifications and do not appear to be attributable to mobilization efforts.