Synergy and congestion in the tourist destination life cycle

Discussion of agglomeration and clustering in the tourist area life cycle (TALC) literature has not led to a corresponding change of the principal equation used to formalize the model. This paper proposes a modification that accounts for the synergies between the accommodation, entertainment, and other components of a tourist destination. The modified model is contrasted with the original TALC and estimated for a cross-section of Caribbean and other island destinations. Estimations based on visitor expenditures and experts' evaluations of destination authenticity are compared. The results illustrate how parameters representing synergy and congestion vary across tourism styles and time. The implications for destination growth are illustrated by comparing the solution to the proposed model with the TALC. The model exposes a core dilemma that while destinations should realize positive synergies to achieve self-sustaining growth, with this threshold achieved, the resulting pace of investment may drive destinations to overshoot, and uneven growth.