Spatial Approaches to Modeling Dispersion of Communicable Diseases - A Review

The dispersion of communicable diseases in a population is intrinsically spatial. In the last several decades, a range of spatial approaches has been devised to model epidemiological processes; and they differ significantly from each other. A review of spatially oriented epidemiological models is necessary to assess advances in spatial approaches to modeling disease dispersion and to help identify those most appropriate for specific research goals. The most notable difference in the design of these spatially oriented models is the scale and mobility of the modeling unit. Using two criteria, this review identifies six types of spatially oriented models. These include: (1) population-based wave models, (2) sub-population models, (3) individual-based cellular automata models, (4) mobile sub-population models, (5) individual-based spatially implicit models, and (6) individual-based mobile models. Each model type is evaluated in terms of its design principles, assumptions, and intended applications. For the evaluation of design, four aspects of design principles are discussed: the modeling unit, the interaction between the modeling units, the spatial process, and the temporal process utilized in a design. Insights gained from this review can be useful for devising much-needed spatially and temporally oriented strategies to forecast, prevent, and control communicable diseases.