Space object area-to-mass ratio estimation using multiple model approaches

In this paper two multiple model approaches are applied to estimate the effective area-to-mass ratio of a space object. Both multiple-model adaptive estimation and a new approach called adaptive likelihood mixtures are used in this work. Multiple model approaches have been used extensively used in target tracking applications since they can detect abrupt changes in the models governing the target's motion. Since the area-to-mass ratio is a function of the projected Sun facing area, which is a function of the orientation of the space object, then the effective area-to-mass ratio is time varying. It is difficult to estimate the time varying nature of the area-to-mass ratio using traditional estimators. Therefore multiple model approaches are proposed here. Simulation results are shown for different scenarios and good performance is given to determine the effective area-to-mass ratios as, well as their changes over time.