Social and emotional skills and young people's expectations of social status and mobility

Adolescents' expected social standing shapes their educational choices, persistence, and well-being, yet little is known about the role of social and emotional skills in forming these expectations. Drawing on the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) 2022 data from 205,231 15-year-olds in 27 countries, we examine how perseverance, assertiveness, curiosity, cooperation, empathy, stress resistance, and emotional control relate to expected relative social status at age 30. We find that adolescents are broadly optimistic: on average, they expect to attain a higher social position than their current standing, with expectations varying only modestly by socioeconomic background. While several social and emotional skills are positively associated with expectations, perseverance and assertiveness show the strongest associations. These skills are themselves positively associated with socioeconomic background and account for a substantial share of the association between current and expected social status. In contrast, academic achievement shows a nonlinear association with expectations once background is considered. Many low-achieving students − often from disadvantaged backgrounds − report highly optimistic expectations. This results in a misalignment between expectations and likely mobility pathways and a weak alignment between academic achievement and expected social status. These findings suggest that adolescents’ mobility expectations are associated not only with socioeconomic background and achievement, but also with social and emotional skills. Optimism among disadvantaged youth may both motivate effort but also carry risks of future frustration if expectations remain unmet.