Rethinking demolition plans to fight neighborhood blight in shrinking cities: Applying agent-based policy simulations

Demolition plans have been used to promote revitalization in America's Rust Belt shrinking cities. However, demolition can barely keep up with abandonment in shrinking cities like Buffalo, New York. This study uses the agent-based approach to explore alternative demolition and neighborhood revitalization policies, built on previous studies on abandonment in Buffalo and other cities. We developed a spatially explicit agent-based modeling framework to simulate four demolition policy scenarios: 1) random demolition; 2) targeted demolition in the areas with the highest abandonment density and near amenities with public interests; 3) targeted demolition in the areas with the highest abandonment density and near commercial corridors, and 4) targeted demolition in the areas with the highest owner-occupied housing rates. The results of our analysis suggest that Buffalo's approach to demolition and neighborhood revitalization resembles a policy framework that uses the demolition of residential units to stabilize commercial corridors. Under this strategy, public investments in commercial corridors are expected to trickle down to adjacent neighborhoods. However, to date, this has not been the outcome. This suggests the need to consider alternative strategies to achieve neighborhood revitalization goals.