Recidivism, Service Characteristics, and Changes in Risk and Protective Scores in Juvenile Probation

This study examines changes in risk and protective factors among youth on probation (N = 6,997) and how services received relate to these changes and subsequent recidivism. Using standardized risk assessments at intake and exit, logistic regression models assessed changes in risk and protective subscales, the relationship between specific services and observed changes, and associations with rearrest and reconviction. Overall, youth showed reduced risk and increased protective scores during probation. Increases in treatment, restitution, and assessments were linked to risk reductions, while treatment, assessments, and skill-building services were associated with gains in protective factors. Notably, more treatment services corresponded with increased risk in the school domain. Youth of color were less likely to experience a decrease in risk and an increase in protective scores. Increases in protective school scores and treatment services were linked to lower odds of rearrest and reconviction. In comparison, more monitoring services and increased legal history were associated with higher odds of recidivism. Findings highlight the potential of rehabilitative services to support youth success and suggest compliance-based approaches, such as increased monitoring, may undermine outcomes. The study underscores the need for equitable, developmentally appropriate, and supportive interventions in juvenile probation.