Reasoning and Decision Making under Uncertainty and Risk for Situation Management

Galina L. Rogova; Roman Ilin

doi:10.1109/COGSIMA.2019.8724330

Reasoning and Decision Making under Uncertainty and Risk for Situation Management

Galina L. Rogova
, Roman Ilin

Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering

Air Force Research Laboratory

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › peer-review

6 Scopus citations

Abstract

This paper addresses the problem of situation management in an uncertain and ambiguous environment. It presents an approach to reasoning and decision making for identifying asymmetric threats and preventing or mitigating possible catastrophic consequences under resource constraints. Decision making for action selection incorporates decision makers' attitude toward risk and uncertainty in the situations involving regular as well as high consequence rare events. The presented approach is based on the OODA loop and implemented within the framework of the Transferable Belief Model, Choquet Expected Utility, Multiple Quantile Model, abductive reasoning utilizing the Belief-based argumentation, and the Anytime decision making. A quality control component is added to the OODA loop to deal with possible insufficient quality of input information and results of processes involved. An example illustrating the approach is presented in this paper.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Proceedings - 2019 IEEE Conference on Cognitive and Computational Aspects of Situation Management, CogSIMA 2019
Editors	Galina L. Rogova, Nicolette McGeorge, Odd Erik Gundersen, Kellyn Rein, Mary Freiman
Publisher	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
Pages	34-42
Number of pages	9
ISBN (Electronic)	9781538695999
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1109/COGSIMA.2019.8724330
State	Published - Apr 2019
Event	2019 IEEE Conference on Cognitive and Computational Aspects of Situation Management, CogSIMA 2019 - Las Vegas, United States Duration: Apr 8 2019 → Apr 11 2019

Publication series

Name	Proceedings - 2019 IEEE Conference on Cognitive and Computational Aspects of Situation Management, CogSIMA 2019

Conference

Conference	2019 IEEE Conference on Cognitive and Computational Aspects of Situation Management, CogSIMA 2019
Country/Territory	United States
City	Las Vegas
Period	04/8/19 → 04/11/19

Keywords

ambiguity
Asymmetric threat
belief-based argumentation
OODA loop
quality control
rare events
uncertainty

Access to Document

10.1109/COGSIMA.2019.8724330

Cite this

Rogova, G. L., & Ilin, R. (2019). Reasoning and Decision Making under Uncertainty and Risk for Situation Management. In G. L. Rogova, N. McGeorge, O. E. Gundersen, K. Rein, & M. Freiman (Eds.), Proceedings - 2019 IEEE Conference on Cognitive and Computational Aspects of Situation Management, CogSIMA 2019 (pp. 34-42). Article 8724330 (Proceedings - 2019 IEEE Conference on Cognitive and Computational Aspects of Situation Management, CogSIMA 2019). Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.. https://doi.org/10.1109/COGSIMA.2019.8724330

Rogova, Galina L. ; Ilin, Roman. / Reasoning and Decision Making under Uncertainty and Risk for Situation Management. Proceedings - 2019 IEEE Conference on Cognitive and Computational Aspects of Situation Management, CogSIMA 2019. editor / Galina L. Rogova ; Nicolette McGeorge ; Odd Erik Gundersen ; Kellyn Rein ; Mary Freiman. Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc., 2019. pp. 34-42 (Proceedings - 2019 IEEE Conference on Cognitive and Computational Aspects of Situation Management, CogSIMA 2019).

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title = "Reasoning and Decision Making under Uncertainty and Risk for Situation Management",

abstract = "This paper addresses the problem of situation management in an uncertain and ambiguous environment. It presents an approach to reasoning and decision making for identifying asymmetric threats and preventing or mitigating possible catastrophic consequences under resource constraints. Decision making for action selection incorporates decision makers' attitude toward risk and uncertainty in the situations involving regular as well as high consequence rare events. The presented approach is based on the OODA loop and implemented within the framework of the Transferable Belief Model, Choquet Expected Utility, Multiple Quantile Model, abductive reasoning utilizing the Belief-based argumentation, and the Anytime decision making. A quality control component is added to the OODA loop to deal with possible insufficient quality of input information and results of processes involved. An example illustrating the approach is presented in this paper.",

keywords = "ambiguity, Asymmetric threat, belief-based argumentation, OODA loop, quality control, rare events, uncertainty",

author = "Rogova, \{Galina L.\} and Roman Ilin",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2019 IEEE.; 2019 IEEE Conference on Cognitive and Computational Aspects of Situation Management, CogSIMA 2019 ; Conference date: 08-04-2019 Through 11-04-2019",

year = "2019",

month = apr,

doi = "10.1109/COGSIMA.2019.8724330",

language = "English",

series = "Proceedings - 2019 IEEE Conference on Cognitive and Computational Aspects of Situation Management, CogSIMA 2019",

publisher = "Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.",

pages = "34--42",

editor = "Rogova, \{Galina L.\} and Nicolette McGeorge and Gundersen, \{Odd Erik\} and Kellyn Rein and Mary Freiman",

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Rogova, GL & Ilin, R 2019, Reasoning and Decision Making under Uncertainty and Risk for Situation Management. in GL Rogova, N McGeorge, OE Gundersen, K Rein & M Freiman (eds), Proceedings - 2019 IEEE Conference on Cognitive and Computational Aspects of Situation Management, CogSIMA 2019., 8724330, Proceedings - 2019 IEEE Conference on Cognitive and Computational Aspects of Situation Management, CogSIMA 2019, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc., pp. 34-42, 2019 IEEE Conference on Cognitive and Computational Aspects of Situation Management, CogSIMA 2019, Las Vegas, United States, 04/8/19. https://doi.org/10.1109/COGSIMA.2019.8724330

Reasoning and Decision Making under Uncertainty and Risk for Situation Management. / Rogova, Galina L.; Ilin, Roman.
Proceedings - 2019 IEEE Conference on Cognitive and Computational Aspects of Situation Management, CogSIMA 2019. ed. / Galina L. Rogova; Nicolette McGeorge; Odd Erik Gundersen; Kellyn Rein; Mary Freiman. Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc., 2019. p. 34-42 8724330 (Proceedings - 2019 IEEE Conference on Cognitive and Computational Aspects of Situation Management, CogSIMA 2019).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › peer-review

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N2 - This paper addresses the problem of situation management in an uncertain and ambiguous environment. It presents an approach to reasoning and decision making for identifying asymmetric threats and preventing or mitigating possible catastrophic consequences under resource constraints. Decision making for action selection incorporates decision makers' attitude toward risk and uncertainty in the situations involving regular as well as high consequence rare events. The presented approach is based on the OODA loop and implemented within the framework of the Transferable Belief Model, Choquet Expected Utility, Multiple Quantile Model, abductive reasoning utilizing the Belief-based argumentation, and the Anytime decision making. A quality control component is added to the OODA loop to deal with possible insufficient quality of input information and results of processes involved. An example illustrating the approach is presented in this paper.

AB - This paper addresses the problem of situation management in an uncertain and ambiguous environment. It presents an approach to reasoning and decision making for identifying asymmetric threats and preventing or mitigating possible catastrophic consequences under resource constraints. Decision making for action selection incorporates decision makers' attitude toward risk and uncertainty in the situations involving regular as well as high consequence rare events. The presented approach is based on the OODA loop and implemented within the framework of the Transferable Belief Model, Choquet Expected Utility, Multiple Quantile Model, abductive reasoning utilizing the Belief-based argumentation, and the Anytime decision making. A quality control component is added to the OODA loop to deal with possible insufficient quality of input information and results of processes involved. An example illustrating the approach is presented in this paper.

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KW - Asymmetric threat

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KW - quality control

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Rogova GL, Ilin R. Reasoning and Decision Making under Uncertainty and Risk for Situation Management. In Rogova GL, McGeorge N, Gundersen OE, Rein K, Freiman M, editors, Proceedings - 2019 IEEE Conference on Cognitive and Computational Aspects of Situation Management, CogSIMA 2019. Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc. 2019. p. 34-42. 8724330. (Proceedings - 2019 IEEE Conference on Cognitive and Computational Aspects of Situation Management, CogSIMA 2019). doi: 10.1109/COGSIMA.2019.8724330

Reasoning and Decision Making under Uncertainty and Risk for Situation Management

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Keywords

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