pyDarwin machine learning algorithms application and comparison in nonlinear mixed-effect model selection and optimization

Forward addition/backward elimination (FABE) has been the standard for population pharmacokinetic model selection (PPK) since NONMEM® was introduced. We investigated five machine learning (ML) algorithms (Genetic algorithm [GA], Gaussian process [GP], random forest [RF], gradient boosted random tree [GBRT], and particle swarm optimization [PSO]) as alternatives to FABE. These algorithms were applied to PPK model selection with a focus on comparing the efficiency and robustness of each of them. All machine learning algorithms included the combination of ML algorithms with a local downhill search. The local downhill search consisted of systematically changing one or two “features” at a time (a one-bit or a two-bit local search), alternating with the ML methods. An exhaustive search (all possible combinations of model features, N = 1,572,864 models) was the gold standard for robustness, and the number of models examined leading prior to identification of the final model was the metric for efficiency. All algorithms identified the optimal model when combined with the two-bit local downhill search. GA, RF, GBRT, and GP identified the optimal model with only a one-bit local search. PSO required the two-bit local downhill search. In our analysis, GP was the most efficient algorithm as measured by the number of models examined prior to finding the optimal (495 models), and PSO exhibited the least efficiency, requiring 1710 unique models before finding the best solution. Additionally, GP was also the algorithm that needed the longest elapsed time of 2975.6 min, in comparison with GA, which only required 321.8 min.