Probability of decompression sickness in no-stop air diving and subsaturation diving

Probabilistic models allow estimation of the probability (Pdcs) that decompression sickness (DCS) will occur in any particular dive. Our objective is to provide Pdcs estimates for no-stop diving instructions used by the U.S. Navy and various other navies. To do so, we develop statistics-based (probabilistic) and intuition-based (deterministic) models using dive-outcome data from the U.S. Navy Decompression Database. We give special attention to subsaturation dives (defined as no-stop dives shallower than 40 fswg with bottom times between 4 hr and one day), for which experimental dives are scarce. According to our models, probability of DCS is 2% or less for current U.S. Navy no-stop air dive schedules and near 1% for the navies of Great Britain, Canada, and France; also the current U.S. Navy prescriptions for subsaturation dives seem to be appropriate. Our probabilistic models fail for deep dives; they do not avoid observed DCS cases in the calibration dataset and provide longer no-stop times than allowed by tables used operationally; we advocate prescriptions by our deterministic model for deep no-stop dives.