Preferences Toward Neighbor Ethnicity and Affluence: Evidence from an Inherited Dual Ethnic Context in Post-Soviet Tartu, Estonia

In the post-Soviet era, cities in Central and Eastern Europe inherited a rather undifferentiated sociospatial urban landscape that contrasts with the highly segregated cities in Western Europe and North America. In the Soviet era, ethnic segregation emerged as migrants were prioritized in public housing allocation. The dissolution of the Soviet Union, however, changed the economic and political position of those in-migrants. This study explores how inherited segregation patterns have evolved in the city of Tartu, Estonia. We use data from (1) 1998, 2008, and 2013 municipal surveys about stated preferences with regard to residential settings for the two main ethno-linguistic groups in Estonia (the Estonian majority and the mainly Russian-speaking minority population), and (2) the 2000 and 2011 national census that allows us to track changes in actual segregation patterns. We study two dimensions of preferences and segregation—ethnicity and neighbor affluence—and apply bivariate probit regression for the analysis of stated preferences. We detect a stronger preference among the majority population to live in its own language environment compared to minorities. Minority avoidance attitudes were strongest immediately after the collapse of the Soviet Union and restoration of Estonia's statehood; by the end of the 2000s the preferences of the two groups toward neighbor ethnicity converged. Members of the majority population, however, prefer affluent environments more than minorities do. Despite converging preferences, the actual levels of segregation have increased in Tartu. This suggests that socioeconomic differences drive patterns of ethnic segregation even when preferences with regard to ethnicity have become more tolerant.