Predictive societal indicators of radicalism - forecasting political violence

The Predictive Societal Indicators of Radicalism (PSIR) Political Violence Model forecasts changes in political violence at quarterly and yearly intervals into the future. Using a regression model applied to a large number of drivers of conflict variables spanning numerous open source social science datasets, the PSIR model uses a novel negative residuals analysis technique. Negative residuals result from the model predicting higher levels of violence than actually experienced, indicating nation states that are pre-disposed to increasing levels of violence based on the presence of environmental conditions and drivers of conflict that have a demonstrated correlation with measured political violence. The negative residuals forecast states where we expect to observe increases in violence - not necessary high levels of violence - a nuanced interpretation that we believe will be of more use to the decision maker to highlight changes in situations, as opposed to simply high levels of violence in already violent states.