Population growth of a gorgonian coral: equilibrium and non-equilibrium sensitivity to changes in life history variables

A size dependent model of population growth of the Caribbean gorgonian Plexaura A is developed based on observed rates of survival, growth and colony fragmentation at a site in the San Blas Islands, Panama. Sensitivity and elasticity analyses indicate that the fate of large colonies has the greatest effect on population growth. Variables which directly affect the generation of large colonies have the next greatest effect on population growth. These variables include the recruitment of large fragments, and the survivorship of colonies in the next smaller size class. Sexual reproduction has an extremely limited ability to affect population growth. Vegetative reproduction has a greater potential effect on growth rates. Environmental conditions regularly change the matrix of transition probabilities which predicts population growth. This keeps the population from approaching its stable size class distribution. Deviations from the stable size class distribution alter sensitivity and elasticity and in this case have the effect of increasing the importance of survivorship of the smallest colonies. Nonequilibrium conditions alter sensitivity analyses and it is important to assess whether populations are at equilibrium and to determine the effects of such deviations on the sensitivity analysis.