Planning with great uncertainty: A review and case study of the safe drinking water controversy

Since 1974, monitoring the water for dangerous contaminants and judging the impact of low levels of contamination on human health have become highly controversial environmental planning issues in the United States. This paper overviews the chemical, ecological correlation, and case control literatures to establish a baseline and then focuses on New Jersey, the state with the highest cancer mortality rates in the United States from 1950 to 1969, for a case study. While estimates of cancer incidence from consuming contaminated water are made, the scientific results are inconclusive. When combined with economic and political questions, the overall result is to highlight an issue frought with uncertainty presenting serious dilemmas for scientific planning.