Of conflicts, conspiracies, red herrings, and black swans

The impact of the findings from the Women's Health Initiative trial of estrogen plus progestin cannot be attributed to any real or imagined conflicts of interest between government, researchers, and journals. Rather, the findings overturned decades of dogma in part promoted by the pharmaceutical industry, and the reaction to these unexpected findings was in direct proportion to their importance in reversing a misguided practice of prescribing the drug for chronic disease prevention. The findings have been widely accepted, as shown by the sustained subsequent reduction in prescriptions. However, conflicts of interest may influence a minority unwilling to accept the findings. The decrease in the use of a drug with an adverse risk profile for prevention of chronic disease is a public good.