NT-proBNP for Predicting All-Cause Death and Heart Transplant in Children and Adults with Heart Failure

Plasma N-terminal prohormone B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) concentration is a heart failure (HF) biomarker in adults and children. Its prognostic value for HF-related events has been established only in adults. Therefore, we aimed to test the hypothesis that plasma NT-proBNP concentrations predicted the risk of heart transplantation or death in children with HF. We studied the medical records of 109 children with HF enrolled in the IBM Watson Explorys database and from 150 children enrolled in the Pediatric Cardiomyopathy Registry (PCMR). Nonlinear regression was used to assess the relationship between plasma NT-proBNP concentrations and the risk of events in the two cohorts. All children in the PCMR cohort had dilated cardiomyopathy. The Explorys cohort also included children with congenital cardiovascular malformations. Median plasma NT-proBNP concentrations were 1250 pg/mL and 184 pg/mL in the Explorys and PCMR cohorts, respectively. The percentage of deaths/heart transplantations was 7%/22%, over 2 years in the Explorys cohort and 3%/16% over 5 years in the PCMR cohort. Mean estimates of plasma NT-proBNP concentration indicative of half-maximum relative risk for events (EC₅₀ values) at 2 and 5 years were 3730 pg/mL and 4199 pg/mL, respectively, values both close to the mean of 3880 pg/mL established for adults with HF. The plasma NT-proBNP concentration is suitable for estimating relative risk of mortality and heart transplantation in children with HF, independent of etiology and shows similar relations to clinical outcomes as in adults, indicating its likely value as a surrogate marker both for adult and pediatric HF. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifiers: NCT00005391 (May 26, 2000), NCT01873976 (June 10, 2013).