Modelling and prediction with geographic information systems: a demographic example from prehistoric and historic New York

Rather than highlighting their ability to store, query, display and manipulate spatial data, this paper emphasizes GIS as a tool for modelling. There is a shift from "left-sided' to "right-sided' thinking. One shunts aside the empiricism of most archaeological information gathering and places one's preconceived expectations front and centre. The result is seldom the confirmation of one's expectations but the development or intuition of new ones. This study uses GIS techniques to simulate various models of demographic migration and settlement in order to achieve three goals. These goals are: to determine more accurately the processes of settlement of a frontier; to learn heuristically the advantages and disadvantages of different models and their consequent scenarios; and to determine the limiting factors of growth and migration. More specifically, this paper concerns the spread of European populations through the state of New York between 1608 and 1810 and their interaction with the native, prehistoric and ethnohistoric populations. -from Author