Modeling Individual Vulnerability to Communicable Diseases: A Framework and Design

Reports on dangerous communicable diseases, such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and H1N1 flu, have repeatedly stressed the importance of individuals in disease transmission. Still in its infancy, individual-based modeling faces many challenges. From the perspective of modeling approaches, this article explores (1) the framework of a three-population (daytime, nighttime, and pastime population) and two-scale (local and societal scale) social network; (2) a design that can represent heterogeneous, mobile, interacting individuals and their individualized vulnerability to infection; and (3) a simulation of individuals' vulnerability to influenza in an urban area in the Northeastern United States to illustrate the proposed framework and design. Simulation results correspond well to the reported epidemic information. The findings offer a valuable platform to devise much-needed spatially and temporally oriented control and intervention strategies for communicable diseases.