Modeling cities: The Los Alamos Urban Security Initiative

The vulnerability of urban populations to crises, poor urban decision making, or terrorism means that city stability is a national security issue. And as cities continue to grow, their components are becoming increasingly intertwined, forcing public works officials to treat urban systems as a “system of systems.” The Urban Security Initiative is an integrated, science-based approach that will link computer models of a range of urban processes so that managers can better understand urban interdependencies, make realistic predictions of city vulnerability and sustainability, and improve planning and management. Several pilot studies are also focusing on urban issues where environment, infrastructure, and society are linked, including (a) transportation and toxic plumes crises; (b) earthquake damage to infrastructure and city regrowth after such disasters; (c) pollution's effects on airborne transport of particulates and their eventual fate in surface water and groundwater; and (d) a novel, computer-based technique for obtaining consensus on difficult urban issues with large numbers of stakeholders.