Integrated risk-informed decision framework to minimize wildfire-induced power outage risks: A county-level spatiotemporal analysis

Under climate change scenarios, the frequency, intensity and duration of wildfires are increasing, especially in the Western U.S. The increased wildfire risks are challenging the utility companies to maintain a reliable supply of power to the consumers and it often leads to prolonged blackouts and brownouts costing the economy billions of dollars. Although the risk of extended power outages is evident in a wildfire scenario, a systematic evaluation of the wildfires-induced power outage risks is not well-documented. In this paper, we present an integrated risk-informed decision consisting of four modules: (1) identify the factors that increase the risk of major wildfires; (2) assess and predict the vulnerability of the state at county-level leveraging data-driven advanced predictive algorithms and spatiotemporal analyses; (3) propose strategies (both capital and operational investments) that would minimize the risk of power grid damage as well as likelihood of major power outages during the wildfire events; and (4) optimal selection of strategies leveraging robust optimization techniques and a benefit-cost analysis approach. We established this framework using the state of California as a case study. The proposed multi-method approach will not only help the utilities to make informed investment decisions, but also will help the public utility regulatory commissions to incentivize the optimal investments that would enhance the resilience of the grid and minimize risks of wildfire-induced major power outages.