Hydrograph sensitivity to estimates of map impervious cover: A WinHSPF BASINS case study

The BASINS geographic information system hydrologic toolkit was designed to compute total maximum daily loads, which are often derived by combining water quantity estimates with pollutant concentration estimates. In this paper the BASINS toolkit PLOAD and WinHSPF sub-models are briefly described, and then a 0.45 km² headwater watershed in the New York Croton River area is used for a case study illustrating a full WinHSPF implementation. The goal of the Croton study was to determine the sensitivity of WinHSPF hydrographs to changes in land cover map inputs. This scenario occurs when scaling the WinHSPF model from the smaller 0.45 km² watershed to the larger 1000 km² management basin of the entire Croton area. Methods used to test model sensitivity include first calibrating the WinHSPF hydrograph using research-monitored precipitation and discharge data together with high spatial resolution and accuracy land cover data of impervious and pervious areas, and then swapping three separate land cover files, known as GIRAS, MRLC, and DOQQ data, into the calibrated model. Research results indicated that the WinHSPF land cover swapping had peak flow sensitivity in December 2001 hydrographs between 35% underestimation and 20% overestimation, and that errors in land-cover-derived runoff ratios for storm totals and peak flows tracked with the land cover data estimates of impervious area.