How population aging is associated with economic inequality and homicide trends

Three major social forces are changing the world: the aging of countries’ population; increased inequality; and an international homicide decline. This chapter proposes that these forces could be interrelated. As individuals live longer with health, they extend their presence in the job market, as well as their social influence. Arguably, one consequence is that younger generations have a delayed access to capital. Hence, while aging may lower homicide rates by reducing the prevalence of violence-prone youth, it could increase inequality-itself a theoretical predictor of homicides. We found evidence that population aging is related to increased inequality and to a decline in homicide rates, but that changes in inequality have no association with homicide trends. These findings suggest that population aging is related to declining homicides and increasing inequality, but that changes in inequality have no clear impact on homicide trends, for reasons we discuss.