Globally coherent water cycle response to temperature change during the past two millennia

Bronwen L. Konecky; Nicholas P. McKay; Georgina M. Falster; Samantha L. Stevenson; Matt J. Fischer; Alyssa R. Atwood; Diane M. Thompson; Matthew D. Jones; Jonathan J. Tyler; Kristine L. DeLong; Belen Martrat; Elizabeth K. Thomas; Jessica L. Conroy; Sylvia G. Dee; Lukas Jonkers; Olga V. Churakova (Sidorova); Zoltán Kern; Thomas Opel; Trevor J. Porter; Hussein R. Sayani; Grzegorz Skrzypek; Nerilie J. Abram; Kerstin Braun; Matthieu Carré; Olivier Cartapanis; Laia Comas-Bru; Mark A. Curran; Emilie P. Dassié; Michael Deininger; Dmitry V. Divine; Alessandro Incarbona; Darrell S. Kaufman; Nikita Kaushal; Robert M. Klaebe; Hannah R. Kolus; Guillaume Leduc; Shreyas R. Managave; P. Graham Mortyn; Andrew D. Moy; Anais J. Orsi; Judson W. Partin; Heidi A. Roop; Marie Alexandrine Sicre; Lucien von Gunten; Kei Yoshimura

doi:10.1038/s41561-023-01291-3

Globally coherent water cycle response to temperature change during the past two millennia

Bronwen L. Konecky
, Nicholas P. McKay
, Georgina M. Falster
, Samantha L. Stevenson
, Matt J. Fischer
, Alyssa R. Atwood
, Diane M. Thompson
, Matthew D. Jones
, Jonathan J. Tyler
, Kristine L. DeLong
, Belen Martrat
, Elizabeth K. Thomas
, Jessica L. Conroy
, Sylvia G. Dee
, Lukas Jonkers
, Olga V. Churakova (Sidorova)
, Zoltán Kern
, Thomas Opel
, Trevor J. Porter
, Hussein R. Sayani

Grzegorz Skrzypek, Nerilie J. Abram, Kerstin Braun, Matthieu Carré, Olivier Cartapanis, Laia Comas-Bru, Mark A. Curran, Emilie P. Dassié, Michael Deininger, Dmitry V. Divine, Alessandro Incarbona, Darrell S. Kaufman, Nikita Kaushal, Robert M. Klaebe, Hannah R. Kolus, Guillaume Leduc, Shreyas R. Managave, P. Graham Mortyn, Andrew D. Moy, Anais J. Orsi, Judson W. Partin, Heidi A. Roop, Marie Alexandrine Sicre, Lucien von Gunten, Kei Yoshimura

Earth Sciences

Washington University St. Louis
Northern Arizona University
Australian National University
University of California at Santa Barbara
Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation
Florida State University
University of Arizona
University of Nottingham
Adelaide University
Louisiana State University
Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research (IDAEA-CSIC)
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Rice University
University of Bremen
Siberian Federal University
Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research
Institute for Geological and Geochemical Research
Research Centre For Astronomy and Earth Sciences
Alfred Wegener Institute - Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
University of Toronto
Georgia Institute of Technology
University of Western Australia
Arizona State University
Sorbonne Université
Aix-Marseille Université
University of Reading
Australian Antarctic Division
Université de Bordeaux
Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz
Norwegian Polar Institute
University of Palermo
University of Oxford
Indian Institute of Science Education and Research Pune
Autonomous University of Barcelona
Université Paris-Saclay
University of British Columbia
University of Texas at Austin
University of Minnesota Twin Cities
PAGES International Project Office
The University of Tokyo

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

41 Scopus citations

Abstract

The response of the global water cycle to changes in global surface temperature remains an outstanding question in future climate projections and in past climate reconstructions. The stable hydrogen and oxygen isotope compositions of precipitation (δ_precip), meteoric water (δ_MW) and seawater (δ_SW) integrate processes from microphysical to global scales and thus are uniquely positioned to track global hydroclimate variations. Here we evaluate global hydroclimate during the past 2,000 years using a globally distributed compilation of proxies for δ_precip, δ_MW and δ_SW. We show that global mean surface temperature exerted a coherent influence on global δ_precip and δ_MW throughout the past two millennia, driven by global ocean evaporation and condensation processes, with lower values during the Little Ice Age (1450–1850) and higher values after the onset of anthropogenic warming (~1850). The Pacific Walker Circulation is a predominant source of regional variability, particularly since 1850. Our results demonstrate rapid adjustments in global precipitation and atmospheric circulation patterns—within decades—as the planet warms and cools.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	997-1004
Number of pages	8
Journal	Nature Geoscience
Volume	16
Issue number	11
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-023-01291-3
State	Published - Nov 2023

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Konecky, B. L., McKay, N. P., Falster, G. M., Stevenson, S. L., Fischer, M. J., Atwood, A. R., Thompson, D. M., Jones, M. D., Tyler, J. J., DeLong, K. L., Martrat, B., Thomas, E. K., Conroy, J. L., Dee, S. G., Jonkers, L., Churakova (Sidorova), O. V., Kern, Z., Opel, T., Porter, T. J., ... Yoshimura, K. (2023). Globally coherent water cycle response to temperature change during the past two millennia. Nature Geoscience, 16(11), 997-1004. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-023-01291-3

@article{3352cb1e7aa3438e89e512ba04c87e1d,

title = "Globally coherent water cycle response to temperature change during the past two millennia",

abstract = "The response of the global water cycle to changes in global surface temperature remains an outstanding question in future climate projections and in past climate reconstructions. The stable hydrogen and oxygen isotope compositions of precipitation (δprecip), meteoric water (δMW) and seawater (δSW) integrate processes from microphysical to global scales and thus are uniquely positioned to track global hydroclimate variations. Here we evaluate global hydroclimate during the past 2,000 years using a globally distributed compilation of proxies for δprecip, δMW and δSW. We show that global mean surface temperature exerted a coherent influence on global δprecip and δMW throughout the past two millennia, driven by global ocean evaporation and condensation processes, with lower values during the Little Ice Age (1450–1850) and higher values after the onset of anthropogenic warming (\textasciitilde{}1850). The Pacific Walker Circulation is a predominant source of regional variability, particularly since 1850. Our results demonstrate rapid adjustments in global precipitation and atmospheric circulation patterns—within decades—as the planet warms and cools.",

author = "Konecky, \{Bronwen L.\} and McKay, \{Nicholas P.\} and Falster, \{Georgina M.\} and Stevenson, \{Samantha L.\} and Fischer, \{Matt J.\} and Atwood, \{Alyssa R.\} and Thompson, \{Diane M.\} and Jones, \{Matthew D.\} and Tyler, \{Jonathan J.\} and DeLong, \{Kristine L.\} and Belen Martrat and Thomas, \{Elizabeth K.\} and Conroy, \{Jessica L.\} and Dee, \{Sylvia G.\} and Lukas Jonkers and \{Churakova (Sidorova)\}, \{Olga V.\} and Zolt{\'a}n Kern and Thomas Opel and Porter, \{Trevor J.\} and Sayani, \{Hussein R.\} and Grzegorz Skrzypek and Abram, \{Nerilie J.\} and Kerstin Braun and Matthieu Carr{\'e} and Olivier Cartapanis and Laia Comas-Bru and Curran, \{Mark A.\} and Dassi{\'e}, \{Emilie P.\} and Michael Deininger and Divine, \{Dmitry V.\} and Alessandro Incarbona and Kaufman, \{Darrell S.\} and Nikita Kaushal and Klaebe, \{Robert M.\} and Kolus, \{Hannah R.\} and Guillaume Leduc and Managave, \{Shreyas R.\} and Mortyn, \{P. Graham\} and Moy, \{Andrew D.\} and Orsi, \{Anais J.\} and Partin, \{Judson W.\} and Roop, \{Heidi A.\} and Sicre, \{Marie Alexandrine\} and \{von Gunten\}, Lucien and Kei Yoshimura",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.",

year = "2023",

month = nov,

doi = "10.1038/s41561-023-01291-3",

language = "English",

volume = "16",

pages = "997--1004",

journal = "Nature Geoscience",

issn = "1752-0894",

publisher = "Nature Publishing Group",

number = "11",

}

Konecky, BL, McKay, NP, Falster, GM, Stevenson, SL, Fischer, MJ, Atwood, AR, Thompson, DM, Jones, MD, Tyler, JJ, DeLong, KL, Martrat, B, Thomas, EK, Conroy, JL, Dee, SG, Jonkers, L, Churakova (Sidorova), OV, Kern, Z, Opel, T, Porter, TJ, Sayani, HR, Skrzypek, G, Abram, NJ, Braun, K, Carré, M, Cartapanis, O, Comas-Bru, L, Curran, MA, Dassié, EP, Deininger, M, Divine, DV, Incarbona, A, Kaufman, DS, Kaushal, N, Klaebe, RM, Kolus, HR, Leduc, G, Managave, SR, Mortyn, PG, Moy, AD, Orsi, AJ, Partin, JW, Roop, HA, Sicre, MA, von Gunten, L & Yoshimura, K 2023, 'Globally coherent water cycle response to temperature change during the past two millennia', Nature Geoscience, vol. 16, no. 11, pp. 997-1004. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-023-01291-3

TY - JOUR

T1 - Globally coherent water cycle response to temperature change during the past two millennia

AU - Konecky, Bronwen L.

AU - McKay, Nicholas P.

AU - Falster, Georgina M.

AU - Stevenson, Samantha L.

AU - Fischer, Matt J.

AU - Atwood, Alyssa R.

AU - Thompson, Diane M.

AU - Jones, Matthew D.

AU - Tyler, Jonathan J.

AU - DeLong, Kristine L.

AU - Martrat, Belen

AU - Thomas, Elizabeth K.

AU - Conroy, Jessica L.

AU - Dee, Sylvia G.

AU - Jonkers, Lukas

AU - Churakova (Sidorova), Olga V.

AU - Kern, Zoltán

AU - Opel, Thomas

AU - Porter, Trevor J.

AU - Sayani, Hussein R.

AU - Skrzypek, Grzegorz

AU - Abram, Nerilie J.

AU - Braun, Kerstin

AU - Carré, Matthieu

AU - Cartapanis, Olivier

AU - Comas-Bru, Laia

AU - Curran, Mark A.

AU - Dassié, Emilie P.

AU - Deininger, Michael

AU - Divine, Dmitry V.

AU - Incarbona, Alessandro

AU - Kaufman, Darrell S.

AU - Kaushal, Nikita

AU - Klaebe, Robert M.

AU - Kolus, Hannah R.

AU - Leduc, Guillaume

AU - Managave, Shreyas R.

AU - Mortyn, P. Graham

AU - Moy, Andrew D.

AU - Orsi, Anais J.

AU - Partin, Judson W.

AU - Roop, Heidi A.

AU - Sicre, Marie Alexandrine

AU - von Gunten, Lucien

AU - Yoshimura, Kei

PY - 2023/11

Y1 - 2023/11

N2 - The response of the global water cycle to changes in global surface temperature remains an outstanding question in future climate projections and in past climate reconstructions. The stable hydrogen and oxygen isotope compositions of precipitation (δprecip), meteoric water (δMW) and seawater (δSW) integrate processes from microphysical to global scales and thus are uniquely positioned to track global hydroclimate variations. Here we evaluate global hydroclimate during the past 2,000 years using a globally distributed compilation of proxies for δprecip, δMW and δSW. We show that global mean surface temperature exerted a coherent influence on global δprecip and δMW throughout the past two millennia, driven by global ocean evaporation and condensation processes, with lower values during the Little Ice Age (1450–1850) and higher values after the onset of anthropogenic warming (~1850). The Pacific Walker Circulation is a predominant source of regional variability, particularly since 1850. Our results demonstrate rapid adjustments in global precipitation and atmospheric circulation patterns—within decades—as the planet warms and cools.

AB - The response of the global water cycle to changes in global surface temperature remains an outstanding question in future climate projections and in past climate reconstructions. The stable hydrogen and oxygen isotope compositions of precipitation (δprecip), meteoric water (δMW) and seawater (δSW) integrate processes from microphysical to global scales and thus are uniquely positioned to track global hydroclimate variations. Here we evaluate global hydroclimate during the past 2,000 years using a globally distributed compilation of proxies for δprecip, δMW and δSW. We show that global mean surface temperature exerted a coherent influence on global δprecip and δMW throughout the past two millennia, driven by global ocean evaporation and condensation processes, with lower values during the Little Ice Age (1450–1850) and higher values after the onset of anthropogenic warming (~1850). The Pacific Walker Circulation is a predominant source of regional variability, particularly since 1850. Our results demonstrate rapid adjustments in global precipitation and atmospheric circulation patterns—within decades—as the planet warms and cools.

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85175579933

U2 - 10.1038/s41561-023-01291-3

DO - 10.1038/s41561-023-01291-3

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85175579933

SN - 1752-0894

VL - 16

SP - 997

EP - 1004

JO - Nature Geoscience

JF - Nature Geoscience

IS - 11

ER -

Globally coherent water cycle response to temperature change during the past two millennia

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