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Do Inflation Expectations Drive Cryptocurrency Investments?

  • Cornell University
  • Indian Institute of Management Bangalore
  • George Mason University

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

Abstract

This extended abstract summarizes the essence of [1], which uses proprietary data from a predominant cryptocurrency exchange in India and the country’s Household Inflation Expectations Survey to document a significantly positive association between inflation expectations and individual cryptocurrency purchases. The authors find that the effect is concentrated in Bitcoin (BTC) and Tether (USDT) trading, and is robust after controlling for speculative demand captured by surveys of investors’ expected cryptocurrency returns. They also find that higher inflation expectations are associated with more new cryptocurrency investors. These results have causal interpretations as confirmed by instrumental variables. The findings of [1] provide direct evidence that households already adopt cryptocurrencies for inflation hedging, which in turn rationalizes their high adoption in developing countries without a globally dominant currency.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication7th Conference on Advances in Financial Technologies, AFT 2025
EditorsZeta Avarikioti, Nicolas Christin
PublisherSchloss Dagstuhl- Leibniz-Zentrum fur Informatik GmbH, Dagstuhl Publishing
ISBN (Electronic)9783959774000
DOIs
StatePublished - Oct 6 2025
Event7th Conference on Advances in Financial Technologies, AFT 2025 - Pittsburgh, United States
Duration: Oct 8 2025Oct 10 2025

Publication series

NameLeibniz International Proceedings in Informatics, LIPIcs
Volume354
ISSN (Print)1868-8969

Conference

Conference7th Conference on Advances in Financial Technologies, AFT 2025
Country/TerritoryUnited States
CityPittsburgh
Period10/8/2510/10/25

Keywords

  • Bitcoin
  • Cryptocurrency
  • Household Finance
  • Inflation
  • Stablecoin

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