Developmental Differences Emerge in How Negative Consequences, Negative Expectancies, and Alcohol Use Relate Over Time

Objective: Learning theories suggest an aversive learning process whereby negative consequences of alcohol use curtail drinking. However, the literature examining this prospective association is mixed. We aimed to clarify this aversive learning process by identifying how (mediators), for whom (moderators), and when (differences across development) such learning occurs. Negative alcohol expectancies were proposed as a mediator, and sensitivity to punishment was proposed as a moderator. Negative consequences were hypothesized to lead to increases in negative expectancies and, in turn, reductions in alcohol use. Associations were expected to be strongest among those with high sensitivity to punishment. This proposed aversive learning pathway was estimated in adolescence (limited alcohol experience) and young adulthood (significant alcohol experience) to examine differences in learning across the developmental period. Method: Data from a longitudinal community sample (N = 387) were analyzed using prospective path mod-els, with annual assessments conducted over 3 years in adolescence (ages 12–14) and young adulthood (ages 19–21). Results: In adolescence, negative consequences were not associated with negative expectancies, but negative expectancies were inversely associated with alcohol use. In contrast, negative consequences were positively associated with negative expectancies in young adulthood, but negative expectancies were not associated with alcohol use. Moderation was not supported. Conclusions: Negative consequences are uncommon among community adolescents and, as a result, may not shape negative expectancies, yet negative expec-tancies are protective against alcohol use. In young adulthood, negative consequences appear salient enough to shape negative expectancies, but they no longer serve a protective function. Findings suggest a shifting role of drinking experience in the development of expectancies and the influence of expectancies on alcohol use.