@inproceedings{7d0bb78016f04d7a84b9b6f1af0bb7af,
title = "Decision Making with 'Gray Swan' events",
abstract = "'Gray Swan' has been defined by Nassim Taleb as a rare and highly consequential event that, unlike absolutely unforeseen Black Swan events, can be expected. This paper describes an approach to designing a decision support system, which monitors uncertain and ambiguous dynamic environments characterized by both regular and Gray Swan events. It is capable of producing probable explanations of the situations, identifying asymmetric threats, and acting to prevent catastrophic consequences or mitigate their impact while operating under resource and time constraints. The proposed system incorporates decision makers' attitudes toward risk and uncertainty while considering regular and Gray swan events characterized by uncertain catastrophic outcomes.",
keywords = "argumentation, belief-based capacity, Choquet utility, decision support, gray swan events, Multiple Quantile Theory, threat assessment",
author = "Rogova, \{Galina L.\} and Roman Ilin",
note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2020 IEEE.; 2020 IEEE International Conference on Cognitive and Computational Aspects of Situation Management, CogSIMA 2020 ; Conference date: 24-08-2020 Through 28-08-2020",
year = "2020",
month = aug,
doi = "10.1109/CogSIMA49017.2020.9215997",
language = "English",
series = "Proceedings - 2020 IEEE International Conference on Cognitive and Computational Aspects of Situation Management, CogSIMA 2020",
publisher = "Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.",
pages = "12--19",
editor = "Galina Rogova and Nicolette McGeorge and Alicia Ruvinsky and Scott Fouse and Mary Freiman",
booktitle = "Proceedings - 2020 IEEE International Conference on Cognitive and Computational Aspects of Situation Management, CogSIMA 2020",
address = "United States",
}