TY - GEN
T1 - Decision-making involving low probability high consequence events under risk and uncertainty
AU - Ilin, Roman
AU - Rogova, Galina L.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2017 IEEE.
PY - 2017/5/16
Y1 - 2017/5/16
N2 - Research in progress described in this paper addresses the problem of decision making in situations involving low probability high consequence events. The traditional Expected Utility Model (EU) has significant limitations in such circumstances as documented in multiple research results. The models discussed in this paper is an adaptation of the Multiple Quantile Model (MQT) representing a rational decision support scheme suited to regular as well as low probability high consequence events to the complex dynamic scenarios, in which decision making has to be based on highly uncertain, often unreliable heterogeneous data and information. The core of this scheme is a combination of the Multiple Quantile Theory with the Transferable Belief Model (TBM) and Anytime Decision making. An example of this approach with numeric simulations is given and the directions of future work are outlined.
AB - Research in progress described in this paper addresses the problem of decision making in situations involving low probability high consequence events. The traditional Expected Utility Model (EU) has significant limitations in such circumstances as documented in multiple research results. The models discussed in this paper is an adaptation of the Multiple Quantile Model (MQT) representing a rational decision support scheme suited to regular as well as low probability high consequence events to the complex dynamic scenarios, in which decision making has to be based on highly uncertain, often unreliable heterogeneous data and information. The core of this scheme is a combination of the Multiple Quantile Theory with the Transferable Belief Model (TBM) and Anytime Decision making. An example of this approach with numeric simulations is given and the directions of future work are outlined.
KW - Cumulative Prospect Theory
KW - Decision Theory
KW - Dempster-Shafer Theory
KW - Multiple Quantile Theory
KW - Situation Assessment
KW - Transferrable Belief Model
UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85021430223
U2 - 10.1109/COGSIMA.2017.7929587
DO - 10.1109/COGSIMA.2017.7929587
M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:85021430223
T3 - 2017 IEEE Conference on Cognitive and Computational Aspects of Situation Management, CogSIMA 2017
BT - 2017 IEEE Conference on Cognitive and Computational Aspects of Situation Management, CogSIMA 2017
PB - Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
T2 - 2017 IEEE Conference on Cognitive and Computational Aspects of Situation Management, CogSIMA 2017
Y2 - 27 March 2017 through 31 March 2017
ER -