Counterfactual Fairness by Combining Factual and Counterfactual Predictions

In high-stakes domains such as healthcare and hiring, the role of machine learning (ML) in decision-making raises significant fairness concerns. This work focuses on Counterfactual Fairness (CF), which posits that an ML model's outcome on any individual should remain unchanged if they had belonged to a different demographic group. Previous works have proposed methods that guarantee CF. Notwithstanding, their effects on the model's predictive performance remain largely unclear. To fill this gap, we provide a theoretical study on the inherent trade-off between CF and predictive performance in a model-agnostic manner. We first propose a simple but effective method to cast an optimal but potentially unfair predictor into a fair one with minimal performance degradation. By analyzing the excess risk incurred by perfect CF, we quantify this inherent trade-off. Further analysis on our method's performance with access to only incomplete causal knowledge is also conducted. Built upon this, we propose a practical algorithm that can be applied in such scenarios. Experiments on both synthetic and semi-synthetic datasets demonstrate the validity of our analysis and methods.