Container port influence: a spatial diffusion analysis of global transshipments

This paper examines the global diffusion patterns of over 1000 ports’ container traffic from 2013 to 2022 to understand port influence dominance. Based on an influence maximization model of direct and indirect diffusion paths, it shows that two ports, Rotterdam and Singapore, consistently exert a disproportionate influence on other ports capturing the Matthew effect which proposes that influence begets influence. Initial advantage in capturing the global transshipment networks enabled both ports to widen and strengthen their influence with time. Despite their lead, Busan’s rise indicates it is possible to catch up. However, the paper also found a reversed Matthew effect for Hamburg and Zhoushan indicating that initial advantage can vaporize if not sustained. The findings imply that ports’ early capacity to capture the global transshipment market can lead to sustained advantage but such advantage can also be developed over time if port managers pay attention to indirect paths of capturing the global container market.