Consumer behavior and superstardom

In this paper, we view the superstar phenomenon as an implication of probabilistic mechanisms by which individuals are selected for the production of artistic products (e.g., motion pictures and operas). Specifically, this study employs a stochastic model of G. Udny Yule and Herbert A. Simon as probability mechanisms through which individuals are chosen by casting directors for their appearance in motion pictures, and predicts that movie appearances will be concentrated among a few lucky individuals. We find that empirical data shows remarkable conformity to the prediction of our model. In all genres of motion pictures, we find that the probability distribution implied by the stochastic model explains more than 97% of the cross-sectional distribution of movie appearances by individuals. Our results support the notion that consumers (i.e., casting directors) minimize search cost by choosing the most popular movie stars.