China's millennial car travelers’ mode shift responses under congestion pricing and reward policies: A case study in Beijing

This paper investigates the potential impacts of congestion pricing and reward policies on migrant and resident millennial car travelers’ morning commute mode shift responses in China. A stated-preference survey developed for this study was conducted in 2017 among millennial car travelers living or working in Beijing's inner district, from which approximately 2000 responses were collected. Separate random parameters bivariate ordered probit models were estimated for migrant and resident millennial car travelers to capture the differences between their mode shift responses, unobserved heterogeneity, and correlation between their mode shift responses to congestion pricing and reward policies. Sociodemographic characteristics, travel behavior and needs, residential location accessibility to and by transit, attitudes towards travel and congestion pricing and reward policies were found to affect millennial car travelers’ mode shift responses. In addition, the impacts of the contributing factors on the mode shift responses were very different between the congestion pricing and reward policies and between the migrant and resident millennial car travelers. The findings from the model estimation and descriptive statistics suggest that the implementation of pricing and reward policies, along with other unique regional (e.g., rapid increase in residential property price) and institutional (e.g., household registration system) characteristics, may potentially bring new challenges to migrant car travelers that may add to their economic burden and reduce their quality of life, particularly under congestion pricing policies. This study also provided insights for the design of future congestion pricing and reward policies and complementary measures that could address the travel needs of all travelers.