Bridge pier failure probabilities under combined hazard effects of scour, truck and earthquake. Part I: Occurrence probabilities

In many regions of the world, a bridge will experience multiple extreme hazards during its expected service life. The current American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) load and resistance factor design (LRFD) specifications are formulated based on failure probabilities, which are fully calibrated for dead load and nonextreme live loads. Design against earthquake loads is established separately. Design against scour effect is also formulated separately by using the concept of capacity reduction (or increased scour depth). Furthermore, scour effect cannot be linked directly to an LRFD limit state equation, because the latter is formulated using force-based analysis. This paper (in two parts) presents a probability-based procedure to estimate the combined hazard effects on bridges due to truck, earthquake and scour, by treating the effect of scour as an equivalent load effect so that it can be included in reliability-based bridge failure calculations. In Part I of this series, the general principle of treating the scour depth as an equivalent load effect is presented. The individual and combined partial failure probabilities due to truck, earthquake and scour effects are described. To explain the method of including non-force-based natural hazards effects, two types of common scour failures are considered. In Part II, the corresponding bridge failure probability, the occurrence of scour as well as simultaneously having both truck load and equivalent scour load are quantitatively discussed.