Brain atrophy and lesion burden are associated with disability progression in a multiple sclerosis real-world dataset using only T2-FLAIR: The NeuroSTREAM MSBase study

Background: Methodological challenges limit the use of brain atrophy and lesion burden measures in the follow-up of multiple sclerosis (MS) patients on clinical routine datasets. Objective: To determine the feasibility of T2-FLAIR-only measures of lateral ventricular volume (LVV) and salient central lesion volume (SCLV), as markers of disability progression (DP) in MS. Methods: A total of 3,228 MS patients from 9 MSBase centers in 5 countries were enrolled. Of those, 2,875 (218 with clinically isolated syndrome, 2,231 with relapsing-remitting and 426 with progressive disease subtype) fulfilled inclusion and exclusion criteria. Patients were scanned on either 1.5 T or 3 T MRI scanners, and 5,750 brain scans were collected at index and on average after 42.3 months at post-index. Demographic and clinical data were collected from the MSBase registry. LVV and SCLV were measured on clinical routine T2-FLAIR images. Results: Longitudinal LVV and SCLV analyses were successful in 96% of the scans. 57% of patients had scanner-related changes over the follow-up. After correcting for age, sex, disease duration, disability, disease-modifying therapy and LVV at index, and follow-up time, MS patients with DP (n = 671) had significantly greater absolute LVV change compared to stable (n = 1,501) or disability improved (DI, n = 248) MS patients (2.0 mL vs. 1.4 mL vs. 1.1 mL, respectively, ANCOVA p < 0.001, post-hoc pair-wise DP vs. Stable p = 0.003; and DP vs. DI, p = 0.002). Similar ANCOVA model was also significant for SCLV (p = 0.03). Conclusions: LVV-based atrophy and SCLV-based lesion outcomes are feasible on clinically acquired T2-FLAIR scans in a multicenter fashion and are associated with DP over mid-term.