An index for early assessment of neonatal survival in low birthweight infants

Since its development in the 1950s, the Apgar index has come into widespread use as a tool to evaluate neonatal condition, with predictive implications for mortality and morbidity. However, Apgar scores were validated in predominantly term infants and have questionable prognostic value for low birthweight infants. The purpose of this study was to develop a survival index applicable to premature infants. Thirty-six perinatal variables were evaluated initially, based on data from 441 neonates weighing 500 to 1800 g. A multifactorial index of nine variables was derived, each independently related to mortality. Sensitivity of the index was 95%, specificity was 68%, positive predictive value was 90%, and negative predictive value was 81%. This index provides the most accurate tool yet reported in the literature for predicting concurrent survival of premature infants. The tool is recommended for use as an index of neonatal condition for low birthweight infants. Its additional use, as a predictor of the likelihood of survival would require time and place specific validation.