An In-Depth Econometric Analysis of Pavement Performance and Service Life by Pavement Rehabilitation Treatment Type and Delivery Method

This paper delivers a detailed statistical assessment of pavement rehabilitation treatments by delivery methods via studying their performance in terms of pavement indicators (international roughness index, rutting depth, and pavement condition rating) and in terms of their pavement service lives. The data include 812 pavement segments that were rehabilitated under six commonly implemented treatments and through six commonly used delivery methods [with a focus on public-private partnerships (PPP)], which were let or completed in the United States between 1996 and 2011. The treatments include a two-course hot-mix asphalt (HMA) overlay with or without surface milling, concrete pavement restoration; three-course HMA overlay with or without surface milling; three-course HMA overlay with crack and seat of portland cement concrete pavement; 3R (resurfacing, restoration, and rehabilitation) and 4R (resurfacing, restoration, rehabilitation and reconstruction) overlay treatments; and 3R/4R pavement replacement treatments. The delivery methods/PPP types include performance-based contracting, cost-plus-time, incentives/disincentives, design-build and their derivatives, warranties, and lane rentals. To model and forecast pavement performance, a three-stage least-squares approach is employed. For the pavement service life analysis, the elapsed time until the pavement crosses a threshold is investigated, using random parameter hazard-based duration models. Separate models are estimated for each combination of delivery method/PPP type and rehabilitation type. The model estimation results show that several influential factors, such as traffic, weather, and pavement characteristics along with drainage condition affect pavement performance and pavement service life; these factors differ among pavement rehabilitation treatments and delivery methods/PPP types.