A Probabilistic Approach to Hydroplaning Potential and Risk

A major contributor to fatal vehicle crashes is hydroplaning, which has traditionally been reported at a specific vehicle speed for a given operating condition. However, hydroplaning is a complex phenomenon requiring a holistic, probabilistic, and multidisciplinary approach. The objective of this article is to develop a probabilistic approach to predict Hydroplaning Potential and Risk that integrates fundamental understanding of the interdependent factors: hydrology, fluid-solid interactions, tire mechanics, and vehicle dynamics. A novel theoretical treatment of Hydroplaning Potential and Risk is developed, and simulation results for the prediction of water film thickness and Hydroplaning Potential are presented. The results show the advantages of the current approach which could enable the improvement of road, vehicle, and tire design, resulting in greater safety of the traveling public.