TY - JOUR
T1 - A Painful Reality Check? Examining the Accuracy of Subjective Survival Probabilities by Pain Interference and Depression Status
AU - Fennell, Gillian
AU - Andrasfay, Theresa
AU - Grol-Prokopczyk, Hanna
AU - Ailshire, Jennifer
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© The Author(s) 2025. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/) which permits non-commercial use, reproduction and distribution of the work without further permission provided the original work is attributed as specified on the SAGE and Open Access page (https://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/open-access-at-sage).
PY - 2026/1
Y1 - 2026/1
N2 - PurposePain and depression are linked to higher mortality risk and lower subjective survival probabilities (SSPs). We examine if SSPs for individuals with pain and depression match their actual lifespans.MethodsUsing data on 12,745 Health and Retirement Study respondents aged 57-89 in 2000 with follow-up through 2018, we assessed whether respondents’ SSPs were “correct,” “underestimated,” or “overestimated” relative to their lifespans. Adjusted multinomial logistic regressions predicted SSP accuracy based on pain interference, depression, and their interaction.ResultsSevere or interfering pain (i.e., high impact pain) was associated with a 25% higher risk of underestimating SSPs (RRR = 1.25, p = .04), and depression increased the risk by 49% (RRR = 1.49, p < .001). High impact pain and depression also corresponded with lower average SSPs and higher mortality risk.ConclusionHigh impact pain and depression increase the risk of underestimating longevity. Future research should explore the impact on health and financial decisions in older adults.
AB - PurposePain and depression are linked to higher mortality risk and lower subjective survival probabilities (SSPs). We examine if SSPs for individuals with pain and depression match their actual lifespans.MethodsUsing data on 12,745 Health and Retirement Study respondents aged 57-89 in 2000 with follow-up through 2018, we assessed whether respondents’ SSPs were “correct,” “underestimated,” or “overestimated” relative to their lifespans. Adjusted multinomial logistic regressions predicted SSP accuracy based on pain interference, depression, and their interaction.ResultsSevere or interfering pain (i.e., high impact pain) was associated with a 25% higher risk of underestimating SSPs (RRR = 1.25, p = .04), and depression increased the risk by 49% (RRR = 1.49, p < .001). High impact pain and depression also corresponded with lower average SSPs and higher mortality risk.ConclusionHigh impact pain and depression increase the risk of underestimating longevity. Future research should explore the impact on health and financial decisions in older adults.
KW - longevity expectations
KW - mortality
KW - physical functioning
KW - subjective life expectancy
UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85212473921
U2 - 10.1177/08982643241307454
DO - 10.1177/08982643241307454
M3 - Article
C2 - 39697074
AN - SCOPUS:85212473921
SN - 0898-2643
VL - 38
SP - 52
EP - 65
JO - Journal of Aging and Health
JF - Journal of Aging and Health
IS - 1-2
ER -