A millennial perspective on Arctic warming from ¹⁴C in quartz and plants emerging from beneath ice caps

Observational records show that the area of ice caps on northern Baffin Island, Arctic Canada has diminished by more than 50% since 1958. Fifty ¹⁴C dates on dead vegetation emerging beneath receding ice margins document the persistence of some of these ice caps since at least 350 AD. In situ cosmogenic ¹⁴C in rock surfaces, and ¹⁴C in plant macrofossils from lake-sediment cores demonstrate that the plateau remained ice-free through the middle Holocene, but has supported ice caps for more than 2000 of the past 2800 years. The rapid disappearance of these ice caps over the past century, despite decreasing summer insolation, further demonstrates the unusual character of 20th Century warmth. Widespread ice-cap expansion ∼1280 AD early in the Little Ice Age, and intensified expansion ∼1450 AD, coincide with peak stratospheric volcanic aerosol loading and reduced solar luminosity, suggesting that these mechanisms may have initiated ice-cap growth, subsequently maintained by strong positive feedbacks.