A categorization-modelling procedure to estimate urban goods transport demand with a minimum number of activity categories

This paper presents an integrated clustering-regression modelling framework to assess the number of trips that each establishment of a given urban zone, city or conurbation generates. The goal of the method is to construct establishment-based trip models using the categorial FTG methodology using a minimal set of categories of activities. The methodology combines a hierarchical cluster analysis that defines a limited number of coherent categories of activities, then a regression-based modelling method that links the FTG rates (production, attraction and generation) to employment, giving a specific functional form for each category (constant, linear, logarithmic or potential). The models are constructed and calibrated on the basis of the 2011-2012 Freight Trip Survey of the Paris Region. Using a hierarchical clustering technique, 5 categories of establishment are defined and resulting FTG models obtained. Most functional forms are linear or potential, with some particular cases where constant generation is preferred. Results are assessed using the R2 coefficient and discussed. The resulting models are robust and applicable to any French city.